A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
